ARST Used Car Index · October 2026
Used-car prices fell in 8 of 10 European markets in October. Only Norway rose.
Like-for-like change from 30 September 2026 to 31 October 2026: same model, year and fuel, net of one month of ageing. 1,356,038 cars matched.
Price change by country
| Country | Change | −2.5%0+2.5% | 95% CI | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | +1.9%+1.7% … +2.1% | +1.7% … +2.1% | 29,7431,033 cells | |
| Finland | −0.1%*−0.4% … +0.1% | −0.4% … +0.1% | 24,7701,196 cells | |
| Austria | −0.2%−0.4% … −0.1% | −0.4% … −0.1% | 122,4913,729 cells | |
| Italy | −0.4%−0.5% … −0.3% | −0.5% … −0.3% | 251,3544,706 cells | |
| France | −0.6%−0.8% … −0.4% | −0.8% … −0.4% | 55,9332,248 cells | |
| Germany | −0.6%−0.7% … −0.6% | −0.7% … −0.6% | 529,0507,202 cells | |
| Portugal | −0.7%−0.9% … −0.5% | −0.9% … −0.5% | 22,4611,178 cells | |
| Poland | −1.3%−1.4% … −1.1% | −1.4% … −1.1% | 135,9333,818 cells | |
| Sweden | −1.5%−1.7% … −1.3% | −1.7% … −1.3% | 82,4782,938 cells | |
| Spain | −1.6%−1.7% … −1.4% | −1.7% … −1.4% | 101,8253,197 cells |
Sorted from highest to lowest change. The thin line is the 95% confidence interval; none crosses zero unless marked. * Interval includes zero: change not significant.
Data as of 31 October 2026 · published 2 November 2026
Three readings from the month
- 3.5 pp
separate the strongest and the weakest market in a single month. One residual-value curve for all of Europe books that gap as error.
- 9/10
moves are statistically significant at 95%: the confidence interval does not include zero.
- 9/10
markets where used electric cars did better than petrol and diesel over the same month.
Electric against petrol and diesel
The same index computed only on battery-electric cars and only on petrol and diesel cars, in the 10 markets. 81,691 electric cars matched.
| Country | Electric | Petrol and diesel | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | +2.8% | +0.8% | +2.1 pp |
| Finland | +0.5% | −0.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Austria | +0.7% | −0.3% | +0.9 pp |
| Italy | +0.5%* | −0.5% | +1.0 pp |
| France | +0.1%* | −0.6% | +0.7 pp |
| Germany | +0.5% | −0.8% | +1.3 pp |
| Portugal | +0.4%* | −1.0% | +1.4 pp |
| Poland | −1.3% | −1.3% | 0.0 pp |
| Sweden | +0.9% | −2.2% | +3.0 pp |
| Spain | −0.1%* | −1.6% | +1.5 pp |
* The electric interval includes zero: the change is not significant.
Method
- We group the used cars for sale in each country into cells of the same make, model, registration year and fuel, and compare each cell's median price on the two dates.
- Only cells with at least 8 cars on both dates count, and a country needs at least 30 matched cells.
- Cell changes are combined as a weighted geometric mean (Jevons index), net of one month of normal ageing at each market's own yearly depreciation.
- The 95% confidence interval comes from 400 bootstrap resamples of the cells. Prices are in each country's currency.
- A country is shown only if its data pass our coverage checks on both dates.
Countries not shown this month
We measure more markets than we publish. We would rather leave a country out than publish a figure that compares months that cannot be compared.
- United Kingdom
- Incomplete base: stock on 30 September 2026 was 47% of stock on 31 October 2026 (we require at least 80%); comparable stock changed by +85.9% in the month, above our limit.
- Netherlands
- Incomplete base: stock on 30 September 2026 was 70% of stock on 31 October 2026 (we require at least 80%).
- Belgium
- Incomplete base: stock on 30 September 2026 was 63% of stock on 31 October 2026 (we require at least 80%); comparable stock changed by +53.9% in the month, above our limit.
Quote and reuse
The figures on this page may be quoted, copied and reused, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0, as long as they are attributed like this:
Source: ARST Data Used Car Index, October 2026 — arstdata.com/en/market-index/2026-10One row per country: change, 95% CI, matched cells and cars, and the electric against petrol and diesel breakdown.
Editions
Frequently asked questions
Are used-car prices falling in Europe?
In October 2026, like for like, it depends on the country: Norway +1.9%, Finland −0.1%, Austria −0.2%, Italy −0.4%, France −0.6%, Germany −0.6%, Portugal −0.7%, Poland −1.3%, Sweden −1.5%, Spain −1.6%. The United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium are not shown this edition: their data did not pass our checks.
What does the index measure?
How much the price of the same used car (make, model, year and fuel) changes between two dates, net of normal ageing. It is not the change in the average price, which moves whenever the mix of cars for sale changes.
Can I quote these figures?
Yes, under CC BY 4.0: they may be quoted and reused with this attribution: "Source: ARST Data Used Car Index, October 2026 — arstdata.com/en/market-index/2026-10".
How often is it published?
Once a month, with the cut on the last day of the month. Each edition has its own address and is not changed after publication. Questions: info@arstdata.com.
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